NJDaway
42%at
DALhome
58%Win probability16-pt gap
Model pick
DAL · 58% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALAmerican Airlines Center · Oct 28
NJD rest: 3dDAL rest: 2d
Game analysis
Devils beat Stars 5–1
- N. Hischier scored the game-winner at 0:38 of the second.
- The Devils scored first and led the rest of the way.
- C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18 shots (.944) for the win.
- The Devils controlled play, outshooting the Stars 27–18.
- N. Hischier led all scorers with 2 goals and 0 assists.
- Model miss: the Devils won with only a 42% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starN. Hischier
NJD · 2G 0A
- 2nd starL. Hughes
NJD · 1G 1A
- 3rd starJ. Hughes
NJD · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:41NJDN. HischierAssists: L. Evangelista, J. Kovacevic1–0
2nd
- 0:38NJDN. HischierAssists: T. Meier, L. Hughes2–0
- 11:45NJDJ. BoqvistAssists: J. Hughes, A. Gritsyuk3–0
- 16:08DALJ. HryckowianAssists: T. Myers, C. Blackwell3–1
- 16:36NJDL. HughesAssists: D. Hamilton, A. Mantha4–1
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
NJDDAL
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 31 | 25 |
| Blocked | 12 | 17 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 0/0 |
| Faceoff % | 46.2 | 53.8 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 2.54 | 1.97 |
| Giveaways | 15 | 11 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 5 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:21 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 18:51 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 13:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 08:36 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 07:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 25:29 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 18:40 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | |
| -- | -- | 37/42 | -- | .881 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 22/27 | -- | .815 | 00:00 |
New Jersey Devils
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 18:08 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 19:42 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 22:58 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 18:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:07 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:03 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 19:47 | |
| -- | -- | 24/25 | -- | .960 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 17/18 | -- | .944 | 00:00 |
Projected score
NJD
2.5
–
DAL
2.9
Most likely final: DAL 3–2 NJD · Actual: 1–5
- DAL win
- 58%
- NJD win
- 42%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- DAL 3 – 2 NJD10%
- DAL 2 – 3 NJD8%
- DAL 2 – 1 NJD8%
- DAL 1 – 2 NJD7%
- DAL 4 – 3 NJD6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 42%
- 7+ total goals
- 32%
- DAL by 2+
- 29%
- NJD by 2+
- 17%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseDAL allowing -16% vs league average, NJD -1%.+0.50
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to DAL.+0.16
- InjuriesDAL without Radek Faksa, Sam Steel, Matt Duchene.-0.16
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jake Oettinger (DAL) +0.07 g/gm; Jake Allen (NJD) -0.03 g/gm.+0.10
- Team OffenseDAL scoring -3% vs league average, NJD -1% (time-weighted goal model).-0.06
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.0.00
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NJD
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Seamus Caseyinjured-reserve · Knee
DAL
Actual (from shift data)L3
3:22
L4
2:11
D3
6:11
57Myers
18:55
10:42
Injured / Scratched
- Radek Faksaother · Lower Body
- Sam Steelother · Undisclosed
- Esa Lindellinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Matt Duchenelong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
- Oskar Backlong-term-injured-reserve · Finger (Fracture)
- Luke Krysinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Cameron Hughesinjured-reserve · Upper Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice