DALaway
52%at
CBJhome
48%Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
DAL · 52% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)InjuriesHome IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Market Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / SONationwide Arena · Nov 6
DAL rest: 1dCBJ rest: 1d
Game analysis
Blue Jackets beat Stars 2–1 in a shootout
- Tied 1–1 after overtime; the Blue Jackets won the shootout.
- C. Talbot stopped 31 of 32 shots (.969) for the win.
- C. DeSmith kept the Stars in it with 29 saves (.967).
- The Stars dominated the dot, winning 67% of faceoffs.
- Model miss: the Blue Jackets won with only a 48% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starC. Talbot
CBJ · .969 SV%
- 2nd starC. DeSmith
DAL · .967 SV%
- 3rd starZ. Werenski
CBJ · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
No scoring
2nd
No scoring
3rd
- 6:27DALM. RantanenAssists: W. Johnston1–0
- 16:46CBJZ. WerenskiAssists: K. Johnson, M. Knies1–1
OT
No scoring
Shootout
- 0:00CBJV. Nichushkin1–2
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
DALCBJ
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 22 | 24 |
| Blocked | 18 | 16 |
| Power Play | 0/1 | 0/2 |
| Faceoff % | 66.7 | 33.3 |
| Corsi % | 49.6 | 50.4 |
| xG | 2.69 | 3.12 |
| Giveaways | 26 | 16 |
| Takeaways | 5 | 1 |
Columbus Blue Jackets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 20:03 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 29:21 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23:09 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:51 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 05:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 18:24 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 17:46 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:08 | |
| -- | -- | 47/48 | -- | .979 | 65:00 | |
| -- | -- | 27/28 | -- | .964 | 00:00 |
Dallas Stars
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:13 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:15 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 09:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 16:43 | |
| -- | -- | 43/45 | -- | .956 | 65:00 | |
| -- | -- | 28/30 | -- | .933 | 00:00 |
Projected score
DAL
2.8
–
CBJ
2.7
Most likely final: CBJ 2–3 DAL · Actual: 2–1
- CBJ win
- 48%
- DAL win
- 52%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- CBJ 2 – 3 DAL9%
- CBJ 3 – 2 DAL9%
- CBJ 1 – 2 DAL7%
- CBJ 2 – 1 DAL7%
- CBJ 3 – 4 DAL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 42%
- 7+ total goals
- 33%
- CBJ by 2+
- 21%
- DAL by 2+
- 25%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseCBJ allowing -1% vs league average, DAL -10%.-0.29
- InjuriesDAL without Miro Heiskanen, Sam Steel, Matt Duchene.+0.21
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to CBJ.+0.18
- Team OffenseCBJ scoring -7% vs league average, DAL -4% (time-weighted goal model).-0.11
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.07
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jet Greaves (CBJ) -0.04 g/gm; Jake Oettinger (DAL) +0.03 g/gm.-0.06
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
DAL
Actual (from shift data)L3
9:16
Injured / Scratched
- Miro Heiskanenother · Upper Body
- Sam Steelother · Personal
- Luke Krysinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Kyle Capobiancoinjured-reserve · Left Leg
- Matt Duchenelong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
- Oskar Backlong-term-injured-reserve · Finger (Fracture)
CBJ
Actual (from shift data)L3
8:05
L4
4:19
D3
9:27
15Fabbro
12:23
11:16
Injured / Scratched
None reported
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice