Dallas Stars clear favourites over San Jose Sharks at American Airlines Center | PuckMetrics

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LIVEAmerican Airlines Center · Nov 8

1@0

SJS rest: 0dDAL rest: 1d

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

SJSaway

31%

at

DALhome

69%

Win probability38-pt gap

Model pick

DAL · 69% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceRest / Back-to-BackInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

SJS

2.2

–

DAL

3.3

Most likely final: DAL 3–2 SJS

DAL win: 69%
SJS win: 31%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

DAL 3 – 2 SJS10%
DAL 2 – 1 SJS8%
DAL 2 – 3 SJS7%
DAL 4 – 3 SJS6%
DAL 1 – 2 SJS5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 44%
7+ total goals: 33%
DAL by 2+: 40%
SJS by 2+: 11%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team DefenseDAL allowing -12% vs league average, SJS +10%.+0.64
Team OffenseDAL scoring -5% vs league average, SJS -13% (time-weighted goal model).+0.24
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to DAL.+0.18
RestSJS on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.16
InjuriesDAL without Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene, Oskar Back; SJS without Igor Chernyshov, Alexander Wennberg.-0.15
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.10
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jake Oettinger (DAL) +0.03 g/gm; Yaroslav Askarov (SJS) -0.06 g/gm.+0.08

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

SJS

Actual (from shift data)

L1

3:13

3:32

2:47

L2

1:59

2:26

1:56

L3

1:49

1:50

1:33

L4

1:24

1:09

1:30

D1

4:50

4:37

D2

3:16

3:00

D3

1:25

1:24

9:16

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Kyle Keyserinjured-reserve · Upper Body
Igor Chernyshovinjured-reserve · Upper Body
Alexander Wennberginjured-reserve · Upper Body
Quentin Mustyinjured-reserve · Upper Body

DAL

Actual (from shift data)

L1

3:12

4:16

3:43

L2

2:02

2:24

2:59

L3

1:43

1:35

2:00

L4

1:07

1:19

1:08

D1

4:40

3:23

D2

3:12

2:45

D3

1:55

1:27

9:16

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Miro Heiskanenother · Upper Body
Luke Krysinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
Kyle Capobiancoinjured-reserve · Left Leg
Matt Duchenelong-term-injured-reserve · Abdomen
Oskar Backlong-term-injured-reserve · Finger (Fracture)

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice