Flames vs Avalanche Score & Box Score — Sat, Oct 31, 2026 | HabsMetrics

← Back to Dashboard

FINALBall Arena · Nov 1

2@5

CGY rest: 0dCOL rest: 2d

Game analysis

Avalanche beat Flames 5–2

A. Lehkonen scored the game-winner at 5:48 of the second.
The Avalanche scored first and led the rest of the way.
M. Blackwood stopped 25 of 27 shots (.926) for the win.
Power play: COL 1/3, CGY 0/0.
The Avalanche dominated the dot, winning 63% of faceoffs.
HabsMetrics model had the Avalanche as 73% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

1st star
C. Makar
COL · 0G 4A
2nd star
A. Lehkonen
COL · 2G 0A
3rd star
M. Necas
COL · 1G 1A

Scoring summary

1st

14:13COLN. MacKinnonAssists: C. Makar, M. Necas0–1

2nd

2:37COLM. NecasPPAssists: N. Kadri, N. MacKinnon0–2
5:48COLA. LehkonenAssists: C. Makar, D. Toews0–3
9:07COLB. NelsonAssists: G. Landeskog, C. Makar0–4
10:50CGYJ. FarabeeAssists: M. Backlund1–4

3rd

1:59CGYM. PospisilAssists: R. Strome, Z. Parekh2–4
4:09COLA. LehkonenAssists: C. Makar, D. Toews2–5

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

CGYCOL

Team statistics comparison
Shots	--	--
Hits	25	13
Blocked	11	10
Power Play	0/0	1/3
Faceoff %	37.3	62.7
Corsi %	46.8	53.2
xG	2.68	3.46
Giveaways	17	17
Takeaways	3	2

Colorado Avalanche

Player statistics for Colorado Avalanche
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Cale MakarD	0	4	4	+4	3	24:27
Martin NecasC	1	1	2	+4	2	20:02
Artturi LehkonenLW	2	0	2	+3	4	15:48
Nathan MacKinnonC	1	1	2	+3	5	19:06
Devon ToewsD	0	2	2	+3	1	20:48
Brock NelsonC	1	0	1	+1	3	13:38
Nazem KadriC	0	1	1	-2	2	19:57
Gabriel LandeskogLW	0	1	1	+1	1	15:23
Fedor SvechkovC	0	0	0	0	0	12:12
Nicolas RoyC	0	0	0	0	0	13:32
Mackenzie BlackwoodG	--	--	36/38	--	.947	60:00
Scott WedgewoodG	--	--	25/27	--	.926	00:00

Calgary Flames

Player statistics for Calgary Flames
Player	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	TOI
Mikael BacklundC	0	1	1	0	5	19:03
Ryan StromeC	0	1	1	0	1	11:48
Joel FarabeeLW	1	0	1	0	3	17:34
Zayne ParekhD	0	1	1	+1	0	18:04
Martin PospisilC	1	0	1	0	2	14:36
Morgan FrostC	0	0	0	-1	1	14:18
Jonathan CastagnaC	0	0	0	-1	1	12:36
Aydar SunievLW	0	0	0	-1	1	15:23
Maxim TsyplakovRW	0	0	0	-1	0	10:11
Kevin BahlD	0	0	0	-1	1	23:02
Arsenii SergeevG	--	--	40/45	--	.889	60:00
Dustin WolfG	--	--	28/33	--	.848	00:00

CGYaway

27%

at

COLhome

73%

Win probability46-pt gap

Model pick

COL · 73% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackMarket Consensus BlendTeam Defense (Goal Model)Home Ice

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

CGY

2.5

–

COL

4.1

Most likely final: COL 3–2 CGY · Actual: 5–2

COL win: 73%
CGY win: 27%
Goes to OT/SO: 19%

Likeliest scorelines

COL 3 – 2 CGY8%
COL 4 – 3 CGY7%
COL 2 – 3 CGY5%
COL 4 – 2 CGY5%
COL 3 – 4 CGY5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 63%
7+ total goals: 52%
COL by 2+: 48%
CGY by 2+: 10%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseCOL scoring +17% vs league average, CGY -9% (time-weighted goal model).+0.72
RestCGY on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.19
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.18
Team DefenseCOL allowing -1% vs league average, CGY +5%.+0.17
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to COL.+0.13
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Mackenzie Blackwood (COL) -0.02 g/gm; Dustin Wolf (CGY) -0.12 g/gm.+0.11
InjuriesCOL without Logan O'Connor, Josh Manson; CGY without Connor Zary, Samuel Honzek, Jonathan Huberdeau.+0.04

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

CGY

Actual (from shift data)

L1

12:15

17:34

19:03

15:33

L2

10:03

15:23

17:52

14:18

L3

7:48

11:48

14:36

13:36

L4

7:11

10:11

12:36

11:29

D1

14:56

23:06

23:02

D2

11:41

20:32

16:51

D3

12:53

18:44

18:04

60:00

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Samuel Honzekinjured-reserve · Lower Body
Devin Cooleyinjured-reserve · Lower Body
Connor Zaryother · Knee (Surgery)
Brennan Othmannother · Upper Body
Jonathan Huberdeauinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)

COL

Actual (from shift data)

L1

10:49

15:48

20:02

19:06

L2

9:11

14:36

19:57

17:00

L3

5:29

15:23

13:38

13:32

L4

3:46

12:12

12:27

12:00

D1

13:52

24:27

20:48

D2

10:01

18:40

17:28

D3

10:14

17:32

15:24

60:00

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Josh Mansonother · Left Ankle
Logan O'Connorother · Personal
Zachary L'Heureuxlong-term-injured-reserve · Upper Body

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice