ANAaway
46%at
CGYhome
54%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
CGY · 54% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackHome IceInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
← Back to Dashboard
FINALScotiabank Saddledome · Nov 7
ANA rest: 0dCGY rest: 1d
Game analysis
Ducks beat Flames 5–3
- C. Gauthier scored the game-winner at 18:26 of the third.
- The Ducks came back from a 2-goal deficit.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- L. Dostal stopped 8 of 11 shots (.727) for the win.
- The Ducks controlled play, outshooting the Flames 29–21.
- Model miss: the Ducks won with only a 46% pre-game win probability.
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starB. Sennecke
ANA · 0G 2A
- 2nd starL. Carlsson
ANA · 1G 1A
- 3rd starZ. Parekh
CGY · 0G 2A
Scoring summary
1st
- 2:23CGYW. StromgrenAssists: Z. Parekh, Y. Kuznetsov0–1
- 2:50ANAJ. Malott1–1
- 16:29CGYJ. HanleyAssists: M. Frost, S. Nemec1–2
- 19:02CGYJ. FarabeePPAssists: Z. Parekh, M. Frost1–3
2nd
- 12:02ANAT. LuneauAssists: J. LaCombe, L. Carlsson2–3
3rd
- 0:55ANAL. CarlssonPPAssists: B. Sennecke, M. Granlund3–3
- 18:26ANAC. GauthierAssists: M. Granlund, B. Sennecke4–3
- 19:46ANAN. NesterenkoEN5–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
ANACGY
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 21 | 16 |
| Blocked | 12 | 23 |
| Power Play | 1/3 | 1/3 |
| Faceoff % | 43.3 | 56.7 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | -- | -- |
| Giveaways | 19 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 2 |
Calgary Flames
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13:20 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22:20 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 10:08 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 22:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 16:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 19:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:45 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:43 | |
| -- | -- | 35/40 | -- | .875 | 58:52 | |
| -- | -- | 24/29 | -- | .828 | 00:00 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 23:16 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 1 | 23:07 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 21:45 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 09:53 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 11:32 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 22:20 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 30:04 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 17:08 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 02:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:28 | |
| -- | -- | 15/18 | -- | .833 | 39:40 | |
| -- | -- | 12/15 | -- | .800 | 20:00 |
Projected score
ANA
3.0
–
CGY
3.3
Most likely final: CGY 3–2 ANA · Actual: 3–5
- CGY win
- 54%
- ANA win
- 46%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- CGY 3 – 2 ANA8%
- CGY 2 – 3 ANA7%
- CGY 4 – 3 ANA7%
- CGY 3 – 4 ANA7%
- CGY 2 – 1 ANA5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 58%
- 7+ total goals
- 48%
- CGY by 2+
- 28%
- ANA by 2+
- 22%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseCGY scoring -12% vs league average, ANA +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.63
- Team DefenseCGY allowing +1% vs league average, ANA +13%.+0.34
- RestANA on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to CGY.+0.17
- InjuriesCGY without Connor Zary, Samuel Honzek, Jonathan Huberdeau; ANA without A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore.+0.12
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.08
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Dustin Wolf (CGY) -0.09 g/gm; Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.08 g/gm.-0.01
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
ANA
Actual (from shift data)L3
6:54
Injured / Scratched
- Troy Terrylong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- A.J. Greerinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Ian Mooreinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ryan Poehlinginjured-reserve · Lower Body
CGY
Actual (from shift data)L4
5:53
D1
15:13
20:36
19:46
Injured / Scratched
- Samuel Honzekinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Brennan Othmannother · Upper Body
- Kevin Bahlother · Lower Body
- Connor Zaryother · Knee (Surgery)
- Jonathan Huberdeauinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice