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SCHEDULEDTD Garden · Nov 8
FLAFLA
—@—
BOSBOS
FLA rest: 0dBOS rest: 1d
FLAaway
38%
at
BOShome
62%
Win probability24-pt gap
Model pick
BOS · 62% to win

Key signals

Market Consensus BlendTeam Defense (Goal Model)Team Offense (Goal Model)Rest / Back-to-BackHome Ice

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Bruins favoured at TD Garden as model projects 3-2 over Panthers

The PuckMetrics model has Boston as the favourite at 63% to beat Florida at TD Garden, with Florida at 37%. That is a clear edge for the home side, though not a runaway one, so expect a game that could tilt either way.

The most likely final score is Bruins 3, Panthers 2. The model also gives overtime a 24% chance, a reminder that this matchup has real potential to be tight and decided late. Confidence in the pick is medium, reflecting a projection that leans Boston without eliminating Florida's path.

Puck drop is 18:00 UTC on November 8. Boston's home ice is the main factor the model points to, but the 37% for Florida keeps this one worth watching closely.

Model favours the Bruins at 63% over the Panthers. Most likely score: BOS 3, FLA 2, with a 24% chance of overtime. Medium confidence. Puck drop at TD Garden. Analytics only, not betting advice. #NHL #LetsGoBruins

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

FLA
2.6
–
BOS
3.3

Most likely final: BOS 3–2 FLA

BOS win
62%
FLA win
38%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. BOS 3 – 2 FLA9%
  2. BOS 2 – 3 FLA7%
  3. BOS 4 – 3 FLA7%
  4. BOS 2 – 1 FLA6%
  5. BOS 3 – 4 FLA6%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
50%
7+ total goals
40%
BOS by 2+
34%
FLA by 2+
15%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseBOS allowing -11% vs league average, FLA -0%.+0.33
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.28
  • Team OffenseBOS scoring +8% vs league average, FLA +0% (time-weighted goal model).+0.22
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to BOS.+0.18
  • RestFLA on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.17
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jeremy Swayman (BOS) +0.04 g/gm; Jacob Markstrom (FLA) -0.03 g/gm.+0.08
  • InjuriesBOS without Matthew Poitras, James Hagens; FLA without Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, Jonah Gadjovich.+0.04

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

FLA

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
10:35
19Tkachuk
23:55
13Reinhart
24:45
23Verhaeghe
21:22
L2
7:21
29Reinhardt
12:59
27Luostarinen
16:38
20Eller
16:11
L3
0:02
8Tkachuk
21:29
9Bennett
18:43
RW
L4
3:16
14Imama
5:13
79Schwindt
8:24
21Hathaway
10:08
D1
11:44
3Jones
26:31
77Mikkola
17:43
D2
13:17
5Ekblad
22:16
42Forsling
19:13
D3
9:56
26Balinskis
13:22
7Kulikov
12:02
40Schmid
58:59
Starter
25Markstrom
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

BOS

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
11:38
10Peterka
18:25
18Zacha
18:37
88Pastrnak
20:23
L2
8:19
93Minten
13:54
92Khusnutdinov
14:00
39Geekie
13:44
L3
10:28
84Jeannot
13:16
52Kuraly
14:47
47Kastelic
13:11
L4
8:12
11Mittelstadt
12:53
28Lindholm
14:40
RW
D1
16:29
91Zadorov
21:25
17Borgen
21:02
D2
16:09
27Lindholm
20:13
73McAvoy
20:02
D3
13:33
6Lohrei
19:10
42Brunet
16:21
1Swayman
0:00
Starter
30DiPietro
60:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice