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FINALPPG Paints Arena · Nov 6
BOS rest: 2dPIT rest: 1d

Game analysis

Bruins beat Penguins 6–2

  • E. Lindholm scored the game-winner at 18:57 of the first.
  • M. DiPietro stopped 17 of 19 shots (.895) for the win.
  • The Bruins dominated the dot, winning 62% of faceoffs.
  • P. Zacha led all scorers with 2 goals and 0 assists.
  • HabsMetrics model had the Bruins as 55% favourites — it called this one.

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.

Three stars

  1. 1st star
    P. Zacha

    BOS · 2G 0A

  2. 2nd star
    M. Geekie

    BOS · 1G 1A

  3. 3rd star
    D. Pastrnak

    BOS · 0G 2A

Scoring summary

2nd

3rd

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

Team Stats

BOSPIT
Team statistics comparison
Shots----
Hits2418
Blocked227
Power Play0/10/1
Faceoff %62.038.0
Corsi %----
xG2.392.35
Giveaways1619
Takeaways53

Pittsburgh Penguins

Player statistics for Pittsburgh Penguins
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
022+1019:28
101+1214:57
101-2411:49
011-1012:21
011+1013:29
000+1116:14
000-1008:57
000-1115:42
000-1116:11
000-3018:07
----28/34--.82460:00
----18/24--.75000:00

Boston Bruins

Player statistics for Boston Bruins
PlayerGAP+/-SOGTOI
022+2118:25
202+2218:37
112+2213:44
022+1420:23
101-1314:40
101+1113:11
011+2113:16
101+1113:54
011+4120:13
011+1016:21
----32/34--.94160:00
----16/18--.88900:00
BOSaway
55%
at
PIThome
45%
Win probability10-pt gap
Model pick
BOS · 55% to win

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendHome IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Projected Goaltending

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

BOS
3.2
–
PIT
2.9

Most likely final: PIT 2–3 BOS · Actual: 2–6

PIT win
45%
BOS win
55%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. PIT 2 – 3 BOS8%
  2. PIT 3 – 2 BOS8%
  3. PIT 3 – 4 BOS7%
  4. PIT 4 – 3 BOS7%
  5. PIT 1 – 2 BOS5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
55%
7+ total goals
45%
PIT by 2+
21%
BOS by 2+
29%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefensePIT allowing +5% vs league average, BOS -10%.-0.45
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.20
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to PIT.+0.18
  • Team OffensePIT scoring +2% vs league average, BOS +5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.09
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.04 g/gm; Jeremy Swayman (BOS) +0.04 g/gm.-0.08
  • InjuriesPIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves; BOS without Matthew Poitras.-0.07

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

BOS

Actual (from shift data)
L1
11:38
18:25
18:37
20:23
L2
8:19
13:54
13:44
L3
10:28
13:16
14:47
13:11
L4
8:12
14:40
11:57
D1
16:29
21:25
21:02
D2
16:09
20:13
20:02
D3
13:33
19:10
16:21
60:00
Starter
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PIT

Actual (from shift data)
L1
13:14
17:06
17:15
17:15
L2
12:03
16:11
18:07
15:42
L3
10:22
14:57
16:14
13:29
L4
7:13
8:57
12:21
11:49
D1
14:59
21:05
20:08
D2
14:53
20:15
19:28
D3
13:30
20:27
17:14
60:00
Starter
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice