NYIaway
47%at
NSHhome
53%Win probability6-pt gap
Model pick
NSH · 53% to win
Key signals
Home IceInjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / SOBridgestone Arena · Oct 28
NYI rest: 2dNSH rest: 1d
Game analysis
Islanders beat Predators 4–3 in a shootout
- Tied 3–3 after overtime; the Islanders won the shootout.
- S. Varlamov stopped 20 of 23 shots (.870) for the win.
- Power play: NYI 0/5, NSH 1/5.
- F. Forsberg led all scorers with 1 goal and 1 assist.
- Model miss: the Islanders won with only a 47% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starK. Palmieri
NYI · 0G 0A
- 2nd starF. Forsberg
NSH · 1G 1A
- 3rd starB. Horvat
NYI · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 3:07NYIA. DuclairAssists: J. Pageau, T. DeAngelo1–0
- 8:07NYIB. SchennAssists: O. Palat2–0
2nd
- 1:08NYIB. HorvatAssists: M. Schaefer, S. Holmstrom3–0
- 9:42NSHF. ForsbergPPAssists: J. Marchessault, S. Stamkos3–1
- 13:02NSHA. KerfootAssists: N. Hoglander3–2
3rd
- 4:16NSHR. O'ReillyAssists: D. Hunt, F. Forsberg3–3
OT
No scoring
Shootout
- 0:00NYIK. Palmieri4–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
NYINSH
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 23 | 20 |
| Blocked | 21 | 16 |
| Power Play | 0/5 | 1/5 |
| Faceoff % | 58.9 | 41.1 |
| Corsi % | 51.9 | 48.1 |
| xG | 3.51 | 3.32 |
| Giveaways | 6 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 2 | 5 |
Nashville Predators
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22:47 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 06:14 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17:27 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:45 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 16:30 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 20:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:12 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | |
| -- | -- | 48/52 | -- | .923 | 65:00 | |
| -- | -- | 24/28 | -- | .857 | 00:00 |
New York Islanders
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:15 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 26:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 25:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 32:16 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:48 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 16:38 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:11 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16:55 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 20:35 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:35 | |
| -- | -- | 39/42 | -- | .929 | 63:10 | |
| -- | -- | 20/23 | -- | .870 | 00:00 |
Projected score
NYI
2.7
–
NSH
2.9
Most likely final: NSH 3–2 NYI · Actual: 3–4
- NSH win
- 53%
- NYI win
- 47%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- NSH 3 – 2 NYI9%
- NSH 2 – 3 NYI9%
- NSH 2 – 1 NYI7%
- NSH 1 – 2 NYI7%
- NSH 4 – 3 NYI6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 45%
- 7+ total goals
- 35%
- NSH by 2+
- 26%
- NYI by 2+
- 21%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to NSH.+0.16
- InjuriesNYI without Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie, Alexander Romanov.+0.11
- Team OffenseNSH scoring -2% vs league average, NYI -5% (time-weighted goal model).+0.09
- Team DefenseNSH allowing -3% vs league average, NYI -6%.-0.08
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.04
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Juuse Saros (NSH) +0.02 g/gm; Ilya Sorokin (NYI) +0.05 g/gm.-0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NYI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Mathew Barzalinjured-reserve · Knee
- Matias Maccelliinjured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Calum Ritchieinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Alexander Romanovinjured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
NSH
Actual (from shift data)L2
2:13
Injured / Scratched
None reported
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice