NYIaway
40%at
MINhome
60%Win probability20-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 60% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesMarket Consensus Blend
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / OTGrand Casino Arena · Oct 30
NYI rest: 1dMIN rest: 1d
Game analysis
Islanders beat Wild 4–3 in overtime
- M. Schaefer scored the game-winner at 0:33 in overtime.
- I. Sorokin stopped 23 of 26 shots (.885) for the win.
- Power play: NYI 1/2, MIN 0/3.
- M. Schaefer led all scorers with 2 goals and 1 assist.
- Model miss: the Islanders won with only a 40% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starM. Schaefer
NYI · 2G 1A
- 2nd starB. Horvat
NYI · 1G 0A
- 3rd starQ. Hughes
MIN · 1G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 0:27MINJ. Eriksson EkAssists: K. Kaprizov, Q. Hughes0–1
- 16:36NYIM. SchaeferAssists: E. Heineman, V. Eklund1–1
2nd
- 1:41NYIB. HorvatPPAssists: S. Holmstrom, M. Schaefer2–1
- 17:21MINQ. HughesAssists: R. Hartman, J. Brodin2–2
OT
- 0:33NYIM. SchaeferAssists: J. Pageau4–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
NYIMIN
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 30 | 31 |
| Blocked | 15 | 12 |
| Power Play | 1/2 | 0/3 |
| Faceoff % | 56.9 | 43.1 |
| Corsi % | 49.1 | 50.9 |
| xG | 2.69 | 2.21 |
| Giveaways | 16 | 23 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 6 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 33:41 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:09 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 23:36 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 21:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 21:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 14:48 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:04 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 06:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 18:02 | |
| -- | -- | 39/43 | -- | .907 | 60:33 | |
| -- | -- | 22/26 | -- | .846 | 00:00 |
New York Islanders
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 30:01 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 20:57 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:52 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 17:09 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:18 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 | 23:49 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 1 | 14:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 3 | 14:07 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:03 | |
| -- | -- | 38/41 | -- | .927 | 60:33 | |
| -- | -- | 22/25 | -- | .880 | 00:00 |
Projected score
NYI
2.3
–
MIN
2.9
Most likely final: MIN 3–2 NYI · Actual: 3–4
- MIN win
- 60%
- NYI win
- 40%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- MIN 3 – 2 NYI10%
- MIN 2 – 1 NYI9%
- MIN 2 – 3 NYI8%
- MIN 1 – 2 NYI7%
- MIN 4 – 3 NYI6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 39%
- 7+ total goals
- 29%
- MIN by 2+
- 31%
- NYI by 2+
- 16%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseMIN scoring +4% vs league average, NYI -4% (time-weighted goal model).+0.24
- Team DefenseMIN allowing -13% vs league average, NYI -6%.+0.23
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to MIN.+0.15
- InjuriesMIN without Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Brock Faber; NYI without Matias Maccelli, Calum Ritchie, Alexander Romanov.-0.09
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.08
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.08 g/gm; Ilya Sorokin (NYI) +0.05 g/gm.+0.03
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
NYI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Mathew Barzalinjured-reserve · Knee
- Matias Maccelliinjured-reserve · Left Lower Body
- Calum Ritchieinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Alexander Romanovinjured-reserve · Right Knee (Surgery)
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
15:22
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice