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SCHEDULEDCrypto.com Arena · Nov 8
PITPIT
—@—
LAKLAK
PIT rest: 1dLAK rest: 2d
PITaway
48%
at
LAKhome
52%
Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
LAK · 52% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingMarket Consensus Blend

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

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Kings vs. Penguins: LA Edges a Close One in the Model

The PuckMetrics model has the Los Angeles Kings as slight favourites at 54% to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins, who sit at 46%. That is a near coin flip, and the model's confidence in the pick is low. Nothing in the projection points to a clear advantage for either side.

The most likely final score is Kings 3, Penguins 2. The model also gives overtime a 23% chance, so a tight, one-goal finish is a real possibility. Pittsburgh has a fair path to a result here, and the home edge is not large enough to rule them out.

Puck drops at Crypto.com Arena, and this one looks like it could go either way. Treat the Kings' narrow lead as a reading of the numbers, not a verdict on the game.

Model has the Kings a slight favourite over the Penguins, 54% to 46%. Most likely score: LA 3, PIT 2. Overtime at 23%. A genuine toss-up at Crypto.com Arena. Analytics only, not betting advice. #LAKings #NHL

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For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

PIT
3.0
–
LAK
3.3

Most likely final: LAK 3–2 PIT

LAK win
54%
PIT win
46%
Goes to OT/SO
23%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. LAK 3 – 2 PIT8%
  2. LAK 2 – 3 PIT7%
  3. LAK 4 – 3 PIT7%
  4. LAK 3 – 4 PIT7%
  5. LAK 2 – 1 PIT5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
57%
7+ total goals
47%
LAK by 2+
28%
PIT by 2+
22%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseLAK allowing +0% vs league average, PIT +8%.+0.21
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to LAK.+0.18
  • Team OffenseLAK scoring -4% vs league average, PIT +1% (time-weighted goal model).-0.16
  • Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.04
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Darcy Kuemper (LAK) -0.04 g/gm; Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.08 g/gm.+0.03
  • InjuriesLAK without Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Fiala; PIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves.-0.00

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

PIT

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
13:14
18Novak
17:06
87Crosby
17:15
67Rakell
17:15
L2
12:03
71Malkin
16:11
81Kindel
18:07
59Chinakhov
15:42
L3
10:22
14Robertson
14:57
19Dewar
16:14
46Lizotte
13:29
L4
7:13
41Koivunen
8:57
22Lapierre
12:21
16Brazeau
11:49
D1
14:59
65Karlsson
21:05
49Girard
20:08
D2
14:53
24Stastney
20:15
6Korczak
19:28
D3
13:30
58Letang
20:27
72Carlile
17:14
37Silovs
60:00
Starter
1Murashov
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

LAK

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1
15:33
10Panarin
18:02
14Laferriere
16:59
9Kempe
17:23
L2
9:08
12Moore
14:15
55Byfield
20:44
90Perry
13:35
L3
8:37
56Haula
14:29
34Connors
11:21
40Armia
12:51
L4
6:23
47Lee
12:01
21Laughton
12:29
42Chromiak
9:03
D1
12:24
8Doughty
21:59
6Edmundson
17:30
D2
12:27
64Gustafsson
20:04
92Clarke
18:12
D3
12:59
44Anderson
20:15
2Dumoulin
17:54
35Kuemper
59:55
Starter
31Forsberg
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice