STLaway
55%at
UTAhome
45%Win probability10-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 55% to win
Key signals
Rest / Back-to-BackTeam Offense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuriesHome Ice
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDDelta Center · Nov 13
STL rest: 1dUTA rest: 0d
Projected score
STL
3.3
–
UTA
3.0
Most likely final: UTA 2–3 STL
- UTA win
- 45%
- STL win
- 55%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- UTA 2 – 3 STL8%
- UTA 3 – 2 STL8%
- UTA 3 – 4 STL7%
- UTA 4 – 3 STL7%
- UTA 1 – 2 STL5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 57%
- 7+ total goals
- 46%
- UTA by 2+
- 21%
- STL by 2+
- 29%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- RestUTA on the second night of a back-to-back.-0.18
- Team OffenseUTA scoring +7% vs league average, STL +1% (time-weighted goal model).+0.18
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Karel Vejmelka (UTA) -0.10 g/gm; Joel Hofer (STL) +0.07 g/gm.-0.17
- InjuriesUTA without Kailer Yamamoto, Nate Schmidt, John Marino; STL without Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker.-0.17
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to UTA.+0.17
- Team DefenseUTA allowing +3% vs league average, STL -2%.-0.17
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
STL
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
- Colton Paraykoday-to-day · Upper Body
UTA
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
Injured / Scratched
- Kailer Yamamotoother · Upper Body
- Maveric Lamoureuxinjured-reserve · Shoulder
- John Marinoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice