Ducks vs. Penguins: Anaheim Favoured in a Close Model Call

← Back to Dashboard

SCHEDULEDHonda Center · Nov 9

PIT

—@—

ANA

PIT rest: 0dANA rest: 1d

PITaway

47%

ANAhome

53%

Win probability6-pt gap

Model pick

ANA · 53% to win

Key signals

Rest / Back-to-BackTeam Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesTeam Offense (Goal Model)

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Share the preview

Ducks vs. Penguins: Anaheim Edges a Close One in the Model

The PuckMetrics model has the Anaheim Ducks as narrow favourites at 55% to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins at Honda Center, with Pittsburgh at 45%. That is a coin flip in practical terms: the model's confidence is low, and a 10-point gap between the two sides leaves plenty of room for the other result.

The most likely final score is Anaheim 4, Pittsburgh 3. Overtime is a real possibility, with the model putting it at 22%, so a one-goal finish is well within the range of outcomes. Expect a game that could tilt either way late.

Anaheim's slight edge comes from the home-ice lean in the projection, but the margin is small enough that this is a game to watch rather than a clear call. Treat the pick as a lean, not a conclusion.

Ducks 55%, Penguins 45%. Our model's most likely score is ANA 4, PIT 3, with overtime at 22%. Low confidence, close game. Watch it late. Analytics only, not betting advice. #NHL #Ducks

X Threads Bluesky Facebook

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

PIT

3.4

–

ANA

3.7

Most likely final: ANA 4–3 PIT

ANA win: 55%
PIT win: 45%
Goes to OT/SO: 22%

Likeliest scorelines

ANA 4 – 3 PIT7%
ANA 3 – 4 PIT7%
ANA 3 – 2 PIT7%
ANA 2 – 3 PIT6%
ANA 5 – 4 PIT5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 68%
7+ total goals: 59%
ANA by 2+: 30%
PIT by 2+: 22%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseANA scoring +10% vs league average, PIT +1% (time-weighted goal model).+0.25
RestPIT on the second night of a back-to-back.+0.21
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to ANA.+0.18
InjuriesANA without A.J. Greer, Troy Terry, Ian Moore; PIT without Elmer Soderblom, Bryan Rust, Ryan Graves.-0.16
Team DefenseANA allowing +13% vs league average, PIT +8%.-0.15
Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.03
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.10 g/gm; Arturs Silovs (PIT) -0.08 g/gm.-0.02