Lightning vs Sabres Score & Box Score — Wed, Nov 11, 2026 | PuckMetrics

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SCHEDULEDKeyBank Center · Nov 12

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TBL rest: 2dBUF rest: 3d

TBLaway

52%

at

BUFhome

48%

Win probability4-pt gap

Model pick

TBL · 52% to win

Key signals

Team Offense (Goal Model)Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingInjuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Projected score

TBL

3.3

–

BUF

3.2

Most likely final: BUF 2–3 TBL

BUF win: 48%
TBL win: 52%
Goes to OT/SO: 23%

Likeliest scorelines

BUF 2 – 3 TBL7%
BUF 3 – 2 TBL7%
BUF 3 – 4 TBL7%
BUF 4 – 3 TBL7%
BUF 4 – 5 TBL4%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals: 61%
7+ total goals: 51%
BUF by 2+: 24%
TBL by 2+: 27%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

Team OffenseBUF scoring +2% vs league average, TBL +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.21
Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to BUF.+0.17
Team DefenseBUF allowing +0% vs league average, TBL -2%.-0.05
Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (BUF) -0.07 g/gm; Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm.-0.03
InjuriesBUF without Konsta Helenius; TBL without Yanni Gourde.+0.01

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

TBL

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1

20:37

23:10

25:56

23:41

L2

6:43

20:13

18:33

14:50

L3

5:25

11:40

12:42

13:44

L4

7:08

7:41

10:02

8:36

D1

15:26

25:25

19:11

D2

14:23

22:17

18:38

D3

13:28

17:36

16:43

65:00

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Zemgus Girgensonsday-to-day · Lower Body
Erik Cernakday-to-day · Undisclosed
Yanni Gourdeinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)

BUF

Projected

Lines from last completed game, minus injured players.

L1

12:41

23:20

20:09

15:41

L2

11:09

13:22

18:14

17:31

L3

7:41

8:47

14:25

9:12

L4

6:29

12:54

11:27

7:37

D1

13:07

25:59

23:21

D2

11:16

27:12

19:51

D3

0:13

10:26

10:22

60:00

Starter

0:00

Backup

Injured / Scratched

Jack Rathboneinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
Jiri Kulichday-to-day · Concussion
Konsta Heleniusday-to-day · Upper Body
Justin Danforthinjured-reserve · Upper Body
Matt Grzelcykinjured-reserve · Lower Body
Conor Timminsinjured-reserve · Lower Body
Alex Lyoninjured-reserve · Upper Body

PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice