MINaway
46%at
BOShome
54%Win probability8-pt gap
Model pick
BOS · 54% to win
Key signals
Home IceTeam Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDTD Garden · Nov 15
MIN rest: 1dBOS rest: 1d
Projected score
MIN
2.7
–
BOS
2.9
Most likely final: BOS 3–2 MIN
- BOS win
- 54%
- MIN win
- 46%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- BOS 3 – 2 MIN9%
- BOS 2 – 3 MIN9%
- BOS 2 – 1 MIN7%
- BOS 4 – 3 MIN7%
- BOS 1 – 2 MIN6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 46%
- 7+ total goals
- 36%
- BOS by 2+
- 26%
- MIN by 2+
- 21%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to BOS.+0.17
- Team DefenseBOS allowing -10% vs league average, MIN -14%.-0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jeremy Swayman (BOS) +0.04 g/gm; Calvin Pickard (MIN) -0.04 g/gm.+0.08
- Team OffenseBOS scoring +7% vs league average, MIN +4% (time-weighted goal model).+0.08
- InjuriesBOS without Matthew Poitras, James Hagens; MIN without Michael McCarron, Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber.+0.05
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MIN
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L1
18:16
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
BOS
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
11:57
L3
7:48
Injured / Scratched
- Matthew Poitrasday-to-day · Undisclosed
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice