MINaway
61%at
PHIhome
39%Win probability22-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 61% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALXfinity Mobile Arena · Nov 4
MIN rest: 2dPHI rest: 2d
Game analysis
Wild beat Flyers 4–2
- J. Eriksson Ek scored the game-winner at 0:42 of the second.
- The Wild scored first and led the rest of the way.
- An empty-net goal sealed it late.
- J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 25 shots (.920) for the win.
- Power play: MIN 0/3, PHI 1/3.
- HabsMetrics model had the Wild as 61% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starM. Boldy
MIN · 1G 1A
- 2nd starD. Barkey
PHI · 1G 0A
- 3rd starJ. Eriksson Ek
MIN · 1G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 4:06MINM. BoldyAssists: Q. Hughes, J. Brodin1–0
- 4:37MINM. McCarronAssists: B. Coleman, B. Brink2–0
2nd
- 0:42MINJ. Eriksson EkAssists: M. Boldy3–0
- 14:24PHIT. FoersterAssists: J. Drysdale, M. Michkov3–1
3rd
- 1:48PHID. BarkeyPPAssists: P. Martone, T. Zegras3–2
- 18:36MIND. YurovENAssists: K. Kaprizov, O. Maatta4–2
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
MINPHI
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 24 | 16 |
| Blocked | 17 | 17 |
| Power Play | 0/3 | 1/3 |
| Faceoff % | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| Corsi % | 44.4 | 55.6 |
| xG | -- | -- |
| Giveaways | 15 | 18 |
| Takeaways | 4 | 6 |
Philadelphia Flyers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 16:20 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 20:01 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:58 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 13:28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 | 13:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 26:50 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:56 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 19:22 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:28 | |
| -- | -- | 29/33 | -- | .879 | 58:33 | |
| -- | -- | 18/22 | -- | .818 | 00:00 |
Minnesota Wild
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 20:15 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:13 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 4 | 19:17 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:04 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 15:36 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 21:29 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 18:04 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 23:31 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 29:47 | |
| -- | -- | 45/47 | -- | .957 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 23/25 | -- | .920 | 00:00 |
Projected score
MIN
2.9
–
PHI
2.3
Most likely final: PHI 2–3 MIN · Actual: 2–4
- PHI win
- 39%
- MIN win
- 61%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 26%
Likeliest scorelines
- PHI 2 – 3 MIN10%
- PHI 1 – 2 MIN9%
- PHI 3 – 2 MIN8%
- PHI 2 – 1 MIN7%
- PHI 3 – 4 MIN6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 38%
- 7+ total goals
- 29%
- PHI by 2+
- 15%
- MIN by 2+
- 32%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffensePHI scoring -12% vs league average, MIN +5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.52
- Team DefensePHI allowing -3% vs league average, MIN -14%.-0.35
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to PHI.+0.14
- InjuriesPHI without Nikita Grebenkin, Rasmus Ristolainen; MIN without Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Foligno, Brock Faber.+0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joseph Woll (PHI) -0.00 g/gm; Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.08 g/gm.-0.08
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.05
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
16:51
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Marcus Folignoinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Nick Folignoinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
PHI
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nikita Grebenkininjured-reserve · Back
- Rasmus Ristolaineninjured-reserve · Hand
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice