DETaway
41%at
EDMhome
59%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
EDM · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuriesProjected Goaltending
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / SORogers Place · Oct 27
DET rest: 1dEDM rest: 2d
Game analysis
Red Wings beat Oilers 4–3 in a shootout
- Tied 3–3 after overtime; the Red Wings won the shootout.
- M. Postava stopped 24 of 27 shots (.889) for the win.
- Power play: DET 1/4, EDM 1/3.
- V. Arvidsson led all scorers with 1 goal and 1 assist.
- Model miss: the Red Wings won with only a 41% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starC. Dach
EDM · 1G 1A
- 2nd starV. Arvidsson
DET · 1G 1A
- 3rd starR. Shea
EDM · 0G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 6:10EDMV. PodkolzinAssists: L. Draisaitl, C. McDavid0–1
2nd
- 8:35DETV. ArvidssonPPAssists: L. Raymond, A. DeBrincat1–1
3rd
- 4:18EDMI. HowardPPAssists: K. Kapanen, C. Dach1–2
- 4:48DETE. FinnieAssists: V. Arvidsson2–2
- 16:32EDMC. DachAssists: R. Shea, R. Nugent-Hopkins2–3
- 18:43DETD. LarkinAssists: L. Raymond, M. Seider3–3
OT
No scoring
Shootout
- 0:00DETL. Raymond4–3
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
DETEDM
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 33 | 25 |
| Blocked | 11 | 14 |
| Power Play | 1/4 | 1/3 |
| Faceoff % | 55.7 | 44.3 |
| Corsi % | 49.2 | 50.8 |
| xG | 2.69 | 3.15 |
| Giveaways | 13 | 11 |
| Takeaways | 6 | 6 |
Edmonton Oilers
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 14:38 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 25:10 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 19:02 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 21:37 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 22:22 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 26:27 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:02 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 08:43 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 07:14 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 08:25 | |
| -- | -- | 40/44 | -- | .909 | 65:00 | |
| -- | -- | 24/28 | -- | .857 | 00:00 |
Detroit Red Wings
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 21:12 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 4 | 18:11 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 1 | 20:34 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 19:28 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 30:07 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 23:16 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 19:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 15:18 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 08:11 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 05:10 | |
| -- | -- | 45/48 | -- | .938 | 63:16 | |
| -- | -- | 24/27 | -- | .889 | 00:00 |
Projected score
DET
2.9
–
EDM
3.5
Most likely final: EDM 3–2 DET · Actual: 3–4
- EDM win
- 59%
- DET win
- 41%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 23%
Likeliest scorelines
- EDM 3 – 2 DET8%
- EDM 4 – 3 DET7%
- EDM 2 – 3 DET7%
- EDM 3 – 4 DET6%
- EDM 2 – 1 DET5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 59%
- 7+ total goals
- 49%
- EDM by 2+
- 32%
- DET by 2+
- 19%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseEDM scoring +14% vs league average, DET -7% (time-weighted goal model).+0.62
- Team DefenseEDM allowing +6% vs league average, DET -0%.-0.19
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to EDM.+0.16
- InjuriesEDM without Mattias Ekholm, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark; DET without Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton.-0.12
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Devon Levi (EDM) -0.03 g/gm; John Gibson (DET) -0.08 g/gm.+0.04
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
DET
Actual (from shift data)L1
9:44
Injured / Scratched
- Albert Johanssonother · Undisclosed
- Daniil Tarasovother · Undisclosed
- Marco Kasperinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Simon Edvinssoninjured-reserve · Contract Dispute
- Mason Appletoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
EDM
Actual (from shift data)L2
6:46
D1
16:54
31:41
17:52
Injured / Scratched
- Mattias Ekholmother · Upper Body
- Matt Savoielong-term-injured-reserve · Lower Body
- Mattias Janmarkinjured-reserve · Undisclosed (Surgery)
- Devon Leviinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Alec Regulalong-term-injured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Atro Leppaneninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Frederik Anderseninjured-reserve · Knee
- Jason Dickinsoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice