DETaway
39%at
STLhome
61%Win probability22-pt gap
Model pick
STL · 61% to win
Key signals
Team Offense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingHome IceInjuriesTeam Defense (Goal Model)
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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SCHEDULEDEnterprise Center · Nov 11
DET rest: 2dSTL rest: 3d
Projected score
DET
2.6
–
STL
3.2
Most likely final: STL 3–2 DET
- STL win
- 61%
- DET win
- 39%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 24%
Likeliest scorelines
- STL 3 – 2 DET9%
- STL 2 – 3 DET8%
- STL 4 – 3 DET7%
- STL 2 – 1 DET6%
- STL 3 – 4 DET6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 50%
- 7+ total goals
- 39%
- STL by 2+
- 33%
- DET by 2+
- 16%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team OffenseSTL scoring +1% vs league average, DET -6% (time-weighted goal model).+0.19
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Joel Hofer (STL) +0.07 g/gm; John Gibson (DET) -0.11 g/gm.+0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to STL.+0.17
- InjuriesSTL without Logan Mailloux, Tyler Tucker; DET without Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson, Albert Johansson.+0.10
- Team DefenseSTL allowing -2% vs league average, DET -1%.+0.03
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
DET
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L2
11:53
Injured / Scratched
- Dylan Larkininjured-reserve · Suspension
- Simon Edvinssoninjured-reserve · Contract Dispute
- Albert Johanssonother · Undisclosed
- Marco Kasperinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Mason Appletoninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
STL
ProjectedLines from last completed game, minus injured players.
L1
13:14
L2
9:34
L4
9:45
30Hofer
60:00
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Torey Kruglong-term-injured-reserve · Left Ankle
- Colton Paraykoother · Upper Body
- Logan Maillouxinjured-reserve · Hand (Surgery)
- Ross Johnstoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Dillon Dubeinjured-reserve · Neck
- Tyler Tuckerinjured-reserve · Left Knee (Surgery)
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice