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LIVEScotiabank Arena · Nov 8
MTLMTL
3@0
TORTOR
MTL rest: 1dTOR rest: 3d

Period by Period

Stats not yet available

MTLaway
50%
at
TORhome
50%
Win probabilityToss-up
Model pick
Toss-up · No clear favourite · MTL 50% · TOR 50%

Key signals

Team Defense (Goal Model)Home IceProjected GoaltendingTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Game Analysis

Projected score

MTL
3.1
–
TOR
3.1

Most likely final: TOR 3–2 MTL

TOR win
50%
MTL win
50%
Goes to OT/SO
24%

Likeliest scorelines

  1. TOR 3 – 2 MTL8%
  2. TOR 2 – 3 MTL8%
  3. TOR 4 – 3 MTL7%
  4. TOR 3 – 4 MTL7%
  5. TOR 2 – 1 MTL5%

Goal totals & margins

6+ total goals
55%
7+ total goals
45%
TOR by 2+
24%
MTL by 2+
25%

Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)

  • Team DefenseTOR allowing +5% vs league average, MTL -2%.-0.21
  • Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to TOR.+0.18
  • Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR) -0.04 g/gm; Jacob Fowler (MTL) +0.08 g/gm.-0.12
  • Team OffenseTOR scoring +7% vs league average, MTL +4% (time-weighted goal model).+0.09
  • InjuriesTOR without Kirill Marchenko, Nick Blankenburg, Max Domi; MTL without Josh Anderson, Mike Matheson, Ivan Demidov.+0.00

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice

Lineups

MTL

Actual (from shift data)
L1
6:43
20Slafkovský
10:59
14Suzuki
12:37
13Caufield
11:14
L2
6:45
85Texier
11:11
24Danault
11:05
76Bolduc
12:07
L3
3:28
91Kapanen
8:38
15Newhook
9:18
77Dach
8:13
L4
4:24
22Kreider
8:19
71Evans
8:48
62Beck
7:14
D1
9:46
21Guhle
17:17
45Carrier
15:14
D2
7:45
48Hutson
15:34
53Dobson
13:11
D3
5:11
72Xhekaj
8:43
42Engstrom
8:18
32Fowler
40:00
Starter
75Dobes
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

TOR

Actual (from shift data)
L1
6:39
96Roslovic
11:43
34Matthews
13:21
53Cowan
11:57
L2
5:05
20Paul
11:17
91Tavares
11:04
88Nylander
12:56
L3
4:21
92McKenna
9:03
15Sissons
9:36
81Joshua
7:21
L4
3:25
24Duhaime
6:41
73Blueger
8:11
19MacEwen
6:16
D1
7:09
43Raddysh
18:05
22McCabe
15:09
D2
4:56
95Ekman-Larsson
16:00
28Stecher
10:50
D3
3:59
8Tanev
12:45
44Rielly
5:45
72Bobrovsky
40:00
Starter
70Akhtyamov
0:00
Backup

Injured / Scratched

HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.

For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice