VANaway
36%at
ANAhome
64%Win probability28-pt gap
Model pick
ANA · 64% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Projected GoaltendingHome IceTeam Offense (Goal Model)Injuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINAL / OTHonda Center · Oct 28
VAN rest: 1dANA rest: 3d
Game analysis
Canucks beat Ducks 6–5 in overtime
- F. Hronek scored the game-winner on the power play at 4:49 in overtime.
- The Canucks came back from a 3-goal deficit.
- L. Meriläinen stopped 18 of 23 shots (.783) for the win.
- The Canucks controlled play, outshooting the Ducks 33–23.
- Power play: VAN 1/7, ANA 1/2.
- Model miss: the Canucks won with only a 36% pre-game win probability.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starJ. LaCombe
ANA · 0G 3A
- 2nd starJ. Lekkerimäki
VAN · 2G 1A
- 3rd starT. Washe
ANA · 0G 0A
Scoring summary
1st
- 15:52ANAA. GreerAssists: J. LaCombe, S. Colangelo0–1
2nd
- 6:36VANL. OhgrenAssists: L. Karlsson, Z. Buium1–1
- 7:06ANAJ. MalottAssists: J. LaCombe, N. Warren1–2
- 15:44ANAB. SenneckePPAssists: C. Gauthier, L. Carlsson1–3
- 18:24ANAL. CarlssonAssists: J. Malott, T. Luneau1–4
3rd
- 11:40VANB. Boeser2–4
- 12:23ANAA. GreerAssists: S. Colangelo, J. LaCombe2–5
- 12:54VANJ. OleksiakAssists: B. Boeser, E. Pettersson3–5
- 17:14VANJ. Lekkerimäki4–5
- 18:03VANJ. LekkerimäkiAssists: E. Pettersson, F. Hronek5–5
OT
- 4:49VANF. HronekPPAssists: B. Boeser, J. Lekkerimäki6–5
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
VANANA
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 25 | 19 |
| Blocked | 9 | 12 |
| Power Play | 1/7 | 1/2 |
| Faceoff % | 36.8 | 63.2 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | 3.90 | 2.44 |
| Giveaways | 17 | 19 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 5 |
Anaheim Ducks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 28:47 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 10:30 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 16:10 | |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 15:02 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12:53 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 17:57 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:38 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:25 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 16:28 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 06:56 | |
| -- | -- | 43/49 | -- | .878 | 64:49 | |
| -- | -- | 27/33 | -- | .818 | 00:00 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 19:55 | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 21:45 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 27:08 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 24:57 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 13:43 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:18 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 6 | 18:02 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 20:51 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 07:13 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 09:42 | |
| -- | -- | 26/31 | -- | .839 | 62:47 | |
| -- | -- | 18/23 | -- | .783 | 00:00 |
Projected score
VAN
3.1
–
ANA
4.0
Most likely final: ANA 4–3 VAN · Actual: 5–6
- ANA win
- 64%
- VAN win
- 36%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 21%
Likeliest scorelines
- ANA 4 – 3 VAN7%
- ANA 3 – 2 VAN7%
- ANA 3 – 4 VAN6%
- ANA 2 – 3 VAN5%
- ANA 5 – 4 VAN5%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 68%
- 7+ total goals
- 58%
- ANA by 2+
- 38%
- VAN by 2+
- 16%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseANA allowing +7% vs league average, VAN +24%.+0.42
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Lukas Dostal (ANA) -0.05 g/gm; Kevin Lankinen (VAN) -0.22 g/gm.+0.17
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +5% applied to ANA.+0.16
- Team OffenseANA scoring -1% vs league average, VAN -6% (time-weighted goal model).+0.14
- InjuriesANA without Ian Moore, Pavel Mintyukov, Ryan Poehling.-0.13
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.08
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
VAN
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
ANA
Actual (from shift data)L4
4:55
Injured / Scratched
- Troy Terrylong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Ian Mooreinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Pavel Mintyukovinjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Ryan Poehlinginjured-reserve · Lower Body
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice