TBLaway
48%at
MINhome
52%Win probability4-pt gap
Model pick
MIN · 52% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendHome IceRest / Back-to-BackInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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LIVEGrand Casino Arena · Nov 8
TBL rest: 1dMIN rest: 0d
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Projected score
TBL
2.9
–
MIN
3.0
Most likely final: MIN 3–2 TBL
- MIN win
- 52%
- TBL win
- 48%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 25%
Likeliest scorelines
- MIN 3 – 2 TBL9%
- MIN 2 – 3 TBL8%
- MIN 4 – 3 TBL7%
- MIN 3 – 4 TBL6%
- MIN 2 – 1 TBL6%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 50%
- 7+ total goals
- 40%
- MIN by 2+
- 25%
- TBL by 2+
- 23%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseMIN allowing -16% vs league average, TBL -3%.+0.43
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.-0.24
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to MIN.+0.18
- RestMIN on the second night of a back-to-back.-0.17
- InjuriesMIN without Michael McCarron, Jared Spurgeon, Brock Faber; TBL without Yanni Gourde.-0.14
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Jesper Wallstedt (MIN) +0.09 g/gm; Andrei Vasilevskiy (TBL) -0.04 g/gm.+0.14
- Team OffenseMIN scoring +6% vs league average, TBL +9% (time-weighted goal model).-0.10
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
TBL
Actual (from shift data)L2
35Hildeby
8:58
0:00
Injured / Scratched
- Yanni Gourdeinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
MIN
Actual (from shift data)L1
Injured / Scratched
- Jared Spurgeoninjured-reserve · Lower Body
- Michael McCarronother · Upper Body
- Filip Gustavssonlong-term-injured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
- Brock Faberinjured-reserve · Skull (Surgery)
PuckMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice