VANaway
41%at
WPGhome
59%Win probability18-pt gap
Model pick
WPG · 59% to win
Key signals
Team Defense (Goal Model)Market Consensus BlendTeam Offense (Goal Model)Home IceInjuries
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
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FINALCanada Life Centre · Nov 6
VAN rest: 1dWPG rest: 1d
Game analysis
Jets beat Canucks 6–2
- D. Mercer scored the game-winner at 14:04 of the first.
- The Jets scored first and led the rest of the way.
- S. Skinner stopped 24 of 26 shots (.923) for the win.
- Power play: WPG 1/3, VAN 0/1.
- D. Mercer led all scorers with 1 goal and 1 assist.
- HabsMetrics model had the Jets as 59% favourites — it called this one.
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice.
Three stars
- 1st starD. Mercer
WPG · 1G 1A
- 2nd starM. Scheifele
WPG · 1G 1A
- 3rd starV. Björck
WPG · 0G 1A
Scoring summary
1st
- 3:49WPGA. IafalloPPAssists: H. Fleury, D. Mercer0–1
- 4:03WPGC. KoepkeAssists: M. Barron0–2
- 6:51VANL. OhgrenAssists: M. Rossi, J. Lekkerimäki1–2
- 14:04WPGD. MercerAssists: C. Perfetti, D. DeMelo1–3
2nd
- 6:52WPGN. PionkAssists: K. Connor, G. Vilardi1–4
- 11:36WPGM. ScheifeleAssists: K. Connor, V. Björck1–5
3rd
- 11:32WPGM. FerraroAssists: M. Scheifele, D. DeMelo1–6
- 15:09VANB. BoeserAssists: J. Quillan2–6
Period by Period
Stats not yet available
Team Stats
VANWPG
| Shots | -- | -- |
| Hits | 20 | 31 |
| Blocked | 10 | 10 |
| Power Play | 0/1 | 1/3 |
| Faceoff % | 54.1 | 45.9 |
| Corsi % | -- | -- |
| xG | -- | -- |
| Giveaways | 22 | 14 |
| Takeaways | 3 | 8 |
Winnipeg Jets
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 1 | 14:56 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 3 | 18:08 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 18:17 | |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 2 | 19:30 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 15:44 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:53 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 12:56 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:12 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:26 | |
| -- | -- | 35/37 | -- | .946 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 24/26 | -- | .923 | 00:00 |
Vancouver Canucks
| Player | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 20:02 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13:39 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | |
| 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:48 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 12:41 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 3 | 11:31 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:01 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:05 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 11:52 | |
| 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:57 | |
| -- | -- | 40/46 | -- | .870 | 60:00 | |
| -- | -- | 23/29 | -- | .793 | 00:00 |
Projected score
VAN
3.0
–
WPG
3.5
Most likely final: WPG 3–2 VAN · Actual: 6–2
- WPG win
- 59%
- VAN win
- 41%
- Goes to OT/SO
- 22%
Likeliest scorelines
- WPG 3 – 2 VAN8%
- WPG 4 – 3 VAN7%
- WPG 2 – 3 VAN7%
- WPG 3 – 4 VAN6%
- WPG 2 – 1 VAN4%
Goal totals & margins
- 6+ total goals
- 60%
- 7+ total goals
- 50%
- WPG by 2+
- 33%
- VAN by 2+
- 18%
Key factors (goal margin, + favors home)
- Team DefenseWPG allowing +5% vs league average, VAN +24%.+0.48
- Market ConsensusBlended 35% toward the consensus market.+0.23
- Team OffenseWPG scoring -11% vs league average, VAN -5% (time-weighted goal model).-0.18
- Home IceLeague-wide home scoring edge of +6% applied to WPG.+0.18
- InjuriesWPG without Nick Bjugstad, Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov; VAN without Tom Willander, Filip Chytil.-0.10
- Projected GoaltendingProjected starters vs an average goalie, shrunk by shots faced: Stuart Skinner (WPG) -0.06 g/gm; Leevi Meriläinen (VAN) -0.01 g/gm.-0.05
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice
Lineups
VAN
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Tom Willanderother · Lower Body
- Filip Chytilinjured-reserve · Upper Body
- Akil Thomasinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Mackenzie MacEacherninjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Thatcher Demkoinjured-reserve · Hip (Surgery)
WPG
Actual (from shift data)Injured / Scratched
- Nick Bjugstadlong-term-injured-reserve · Left Pectoral (Surgery)
- Vladislav Namestnikovinjured-reserve · Undisclosed
- Josh Morrisseyinjured-reserve · Right Wrist
HabsMetrics Analytics — for educational purposes. Lines are inferred from shared five-skater ice time in NHL shift data; projections are estimates.
For educational/analytics purposes only — not gambling advice